Monthly Archives: August 2009

Can The9 survive?

the9NCTY, one of the biggest Chinese gaming company, reported that Q2 ’09 revenue declined 32% to about $40 million while the company swung to a loss of about $12 million from a gain of $14.5 million in Q2 ’08, The9 lost its license to run the “World of Warcraft” in China few months ago so that most expected its business to take a hit.

In fact, The9 made a stratagy mistake in the process of arguing with WoW owner Activision Blizzard in April. Blizzard finnaly chose competitor NetEase to operate the game in China after  The9’s license expired on June 7. Given that WoW consisted of nearly all of the company’s revenue, it’s obvious The9 has no alternative plan to revive its business,even though its management said in the earnings release that it had invested in a few game development studios and had entered into licensing agreement for other games like World of Fighter andKingdom Heroes 2.

Investors in NCTY must be painful for the losing of 40% from $13 since the news of WoW released, however, the worse is: whether The9 itself know how to survive the firece competition, certainly, long term investors may hold their hope because of the vaule of cash in The9 is more than the market capital.

Moscow property market in trouble, how about China?

declining-home-pricesWestern housing price was going down, Russia, one of the astonishing emerging markets, also see the sign of the capital’s troubled property market–some prefer to blame “people cannot produce demand” instead of the excuse of the global crisis. It was reported about Moscow property tycoons, they lose their wealth so rapidly in the past year, even much quicker than they got the “accounting value”. Most Chinese investors have never experienced such sort of valve changing in real estate market, they cannot imagine how prices have tumbled 60 per cent inside a year even they once verified Shanghai real estate was reasonable by comparing to Moscow in 2005-2007.

The results are visible all over the Moscow, many plans and projects have been frozen. The property shock was so sudden, worse than most expected in past 6 months. Some decision based on wrong analyzing at early this year intensified the crisis. Research showed a 20-30 per cent drop so far this year and estate agents report sales 30 per cent below asking prices.

Residential property, which quadrupled since 2000 to peak at almost $26,000 per square metre in prime locations last year, is also falling back to earth with a bump as Russia’s oil-fuelled economic boom has turned to bust.

Some rich guys may have to clean up other problems. Russia tax agent takes a series of investigation on property magnates after they fail to find financial sourcing. It is believed by most Russia people every property developer must be involved in business bribes for grabbing loan and lands, it seems this common view is popular in China either.

Banks, the direct “victims” ( beneficiary? Some Chinese guys insist the bullish thinking), have growing property portfolios as they have to take over buildings for unpaid debts.

… …

It is not just a number game; the over-heating market deeply hurt the real economy and makes it almost impossible to recover soon. China will copy all these? At least, currently, none dares to venture a “sell” to China market despite of a lofty valuation in the real estate and capital market.

Money rush out of banking, and then blow up capital market

测试中文

金融类上市公司是政策保护的堡垒,事实也确实如此,今年上半年宽松的信贷政策挽救了金融机构,不良贷款率与不良贷款余额出现双降。

有人说,金融机构拯救了股市。错,是股市拯救了银行。

半年报显示,包括工商银行、中国平安、中信证券在内的16家金融类企业今年上半年共实现营业总收入4860.25亿元,合计创造净利润则高达1641.3亿元,占1057家上市公司2495.05亿元净利润的65.78%。但与以往的业绩相比,银行业绩平淡中略有下行,不是股市的什么大利好。截止8月24日,14家上市银行中,已发布半年报的有8家。其中,仅有5家银行实现了利润微幅正增长,其余3家均为负“增长”。

现在银行要靠股市来拯救。在信贷急剧扩张后,金融类股的命门在资本充足率,如果不能尽快补充资本金,银行将无米下炊。

银行股的一季报显示(除没有进行专项披露的银行外),除了建设银行的资本充足率从2008年底的12.16%提高到今年一季度的12.47%外,其他银行都有所下降,尤其是深发展A、浦发银行等中小银行,资本充足率仅为8.53%与8.72%,触及8%的底线。今年第一季度银行业新增信贷4.58万亿元,在当期补充了约500亿资本的情况下,银行业加权资本充足率依然由2008年末的12%,下降到了一季度末的9.9%。华夏银行、交通银行和民生银行的半年报显示,这3家银行2009年上半年资本充足率分别为10.63%、12.57%和8.48%,比上年度末分别下降1.04%、0.9%和0.74%个百分点。

火上浇油的是,有媒体报道,为了严防风险,银监会要求各银行将持有的其他贷款机构发行的次级债和混合债从补充资本中扣除。银监会此举是为了防止各银行之间交叉持有次级债,让风险在银行体系内部循环,报表漂亮而风险依旧。

今年以来,14家上市银行中已有11家提出了次级债发行计划,发债计划达到数千亿元,其中中行一家就提出12000亿元的次级债发行计划。据中金公司统计,当前银行体系的核心资本净额在2.35万亿元左右,银行间互持的次级债估计已达3000亿元左右,若采取追溯过去法,则14家上市银行中浦发、民生、深发展的资 本 充 足 率 将 低 于8%(分 别 为7.05%、7.91%、6.93%),招行、华夏低于10%。

如果银监会关上次级债阀门,银行不外乎三个办法解决资本金瓶颈:提高利润,减少信贷和融资再融资。

由于1个百分点的资本充足率约可支持2.3万亿元的新增信贷投放,减少信贷可以增加资本充足率,大幅减少信贷可能影响宏观经济,影响银行快速做大,因此这个消极办法银行大多不会采用;提高利润谈何容易,银行进行的自营、向企业压榨式的中间业务收入增长很高;而扩大净息差比率在短期内难以实现,可见,短期内补充资本金的惟一方式就是利用资本市场融资,进行IPO、增资扩股或者定向增发。

可爱的资本市场是阿里巴巴的神奇宝库,银行家们口中念念有辞:芝麻,开门吧。

今年7月份,深发展通过定向增发,补充资本金5.85亿元;8月13日晚,招商银行宣布计划通过A、H股同时配股融资150亿到180亿元人民币率;8月19日,民生银行发布公告,8月18日收到中国证监会行政许可申请受理通知书,发行H股已经正式获得证监会批准。据悉,民生银行拟发售H股最多不超过38.18亿股,募集资金约200亿元人民币左右;浦发银行也拟募资不超过150亿元。

其他银行利用资本市场募资也将连袂而来。根据申银万国的测算数据,若要达到12%的标准,则包括招商银行在内的七家A股上市的股份制银行共需筹集资金近800亿元。

岂止补充资本金,中国银行业之所以能在短期内做大做强,多亏剥离、注资、上市的改革三部曲。今年2月,全球银行排名榜,中国首次四家中资银行一同跻身前十,排在首位的工行的市值已经相当于9个花旗银行,目前工商银行与老二汇丰之间的市值差距已扩大一倍多,达到410亿美元。

而中国的银行业还在海外布局,虽然代价不菲,就在8月份,建设银行香港全资子公司建行亚洲拟收购美国国际信贷(香港)有限公司(AIGF)全部股份。资金从何而来,巨大的赢利,还有取之不尽的资本市场。

对于A股市场的投资者而言,惟一可以松口气的是,幸亏这些银行不全在内地市场吸血,他们是国际性公司。货币注水是全球现象,不是吗?如果这些银行都是如金融危机之前汇丰这样年年分红的诚实大笨象,A股的投资者实在是太幸福了。可惜,梦想照不进现实。等吧。注:最近一直在考虑,在中国,股市与信贷本质上是一回事。

Stock

Money rush out of banking, and then blow up capital market

测试中文

金融类上市公司是政策保护的堡垒,事实也确实如此,今年上半年宽松的信贷政策挽救了金融机构,不良贷款率与不良贷款余额出现双降。

有人说,金融机构拯救了股市。错,是股市拯救了银行。

半年报显示,包括工商银行、中国平安、中信证券在内的16家金融类企业今年上半年共实现营业总收入4860.25亿元,合计创造净利润则高达1641.3亿元,占1057家上市公司2495.05亿元净利润的65.78%。但与以往的业绩相比,银行业绩平淡中略有下行,不是股市的什么大利好。截止8月24日,14家上市银行中,已发布半年报的有8家。其中,仅有5家银行实现了利润微幅正增长,其余3家均为负“增长”。

现在银行要靠股市来拯救。在信贷急剧扩张后,金融类股的命门在资本充足率,如果不能尽快补充资本金,银行将无米下炊。

银行股的一季报显示(除没有进行专项披露的银行外),除了建设银行的资本充足率从2008年底的12.16%提高到今年一季度的12.47%外,其他银行都有所下降,尤其是深发展A、浦发银行等中小银行,资本充足率仅为8.53%与8.72%,触及8%的底线。今年第一季度银行业新增信贷4.58万亿元,在当期补充了约500亿资本的情况下,银行业加权资本充足率依然由2008年末的12%,下降到了一季度末的9.9%。华夏银行、交通银行和民生银行的半年报显示,这3家银行2009年上半年资本充足率分别为10.63%、12.57%和8.48%,比上年度末分别下降1.04%、0.9%和0.74%个百分点。

火上浇油的是,有媒体报道,为了严防风险,银监会要求各银行将持有的其他贷款机构发行的次级债和混合债从补充资本中扣除。银监会此举是为了防止各银行之间交叉持有次级债,让风险在银行体系内部循环,报表漂亮而风险依旧。

今年以来,14家上市银行中已有11家提出了次级债发行计划,发债计划达到数千亿元,其中中行一家就提出12000亿元的次级债发行计划。据中金公司统计,当前银行体系的核心资本净额在2.35万亿元左右,银行间互持的次级债估计已达3000亿元左右,若采取追溯过去法,则14家上市银行中浦发、民生、深发展的资 本 充 足 率 将 低 于8%(分 别 为7.05%、7.91%、6.93%),招行、华夏低于10%。

如果银监会关上次级债阀门,银行不外乎三个办法解决资本金瓶颈:提高利润,减少信贷和融资再融资。

由于1个百分点的资本充足率约可支持2.3万亿元的新增信贷投放,减少信贷可以增加资本充足率,大幅减少信贷可能影响宏观经济,影响银行快速做大,因此这个消极办法银行大多不会采用;提高利润谈何容易,银行进行的自营、向企业压榨式的中间业务收入增长很高;而扩大净息差比率在短期内难以实现,可见,短期内补充资本金的惟一方式就是利用资本市场融资,进行IPO、增资扩股或者定向增发。

可爱的资本市场是阿里巴巴的神奇宝库,银行家们口中念念有辞:芝麻,开门吧。

今年7月份,深发展通过定向增发,补充资本金5.85亿元;8月13日晚,招商银行宣布计划通过A、H股同时配股融资150亿到180亿元人民币率;8月19日,民生银行发布公告,8月18日收到中国证监会行政许可申请受理通知书,发行H股已经正式获得证监会批准。据悉,民生银行拟发售H股最多不超过38.18亿股,募集资金约200亿元人民币左右;浦发银行也拟募资不超过150亿元。

其他银行利用资本市场募资也将连袂而来。根据申银万国的测算数据,若要达到12%的标准,则包括招商银行在内的七家A股上市的股份制银行共需筹集资金近800亿元。

岂止补充资本金,中国银行业之所以能在短期内做大做强,多亏剥离、注资、上市的改革三部曲。今年2月,全球银行排名榜,中国首次四家中资银行一同跻身前十,排在首位的工行的市值已经相当于9个花旗银行,目前工商银行与老二汇丰之间的市值差距已扩大一倍多,达到410亿美元。

而中国的银行业还在海外布局,虽然代价不菲,就在8月份,建设银行香港全资子公司建行亚洲拟收购美国国际信贷(香港)有限公司(AIGF)全部股份。资金从何而来,巨大的赢利,还有取之不尽的资本市场。

对于A股市场的投资者而言,惟一可以松口气的是,幸亏这些银行不全在内地市场吸血,他们是国际性公司。货币注水是全球现象,不是吗?如果这些银行都是如金融危机之前汇丰这样年年分红的诚实大笨象,A股的投资者实在是太幸福了。可惜,梦想照不进现实。等吧。注:最近一直在考虑,在中国,股市与信贷本质上是一回事。

Stock

One Gmail address signup and manage many Twitter accounts

We completely understand web services require one unique email address for each account you create in order to halt rubbish application, which can easily be done by plenty of spam-making softwares, however, I often got tired of managing lots of emails from some web services until I made good use of Gmail or Googlemail(in some countries).
As many know Gmail address has some powerful features, such as, you put a dot or many dots  into  any of the letters within Gmail ID the email still arrives to the same mailbox. So for instance if your email address is : abcdef@gmail.com, then “a.bcdef”, “ab.cdef”, “abc.def”, “abcd.ef” … … “a.b.c.d.e.f” all these emails belong to you and they are nicknames, none can apply these Gmail accounts. More poweful, you can add “+” to identify what kind of serive you once apply and signup.

The following example show how you can apply and manage many twitters in one Gmail

first, we can add “.”  into Gmail ID

abcdef@gmail.com      Signup Twitter: BBCNN

a.bcdef@gmail.com     Signup Twitter: BBCNN1

ab.cdef@gmail.com     Signup Twitter: BBCNN2

image

abc.def@gmail.com     Signup Twitter: BBCNN3

abcd.ef@gmail.com     Signup Twitter: BBCNN4

… …

a.b.c.d.e.f@gmail.com Signup Twitter: ILOVEBBCNN

… …

Great, isn’t it? Alright, show you this advanced feature:

abcdef+BBCNN1@gmail.com Signup witter: BBCNN1

abcdef+BBCNN2@gmail.com Signup Twitter: BBCNN2

abcdef+BBCNN3@gmail.com Signup Twitter: BBCNN3

abcdef+BBCNN4@gmail.com Signup Twitter: BBCNN4
… …
abcdef+BBCNN+X@gmail.com Signup Twitter: BBCNNX

a.b.c.def+BBCNN+X@gmail.com Signup Twitter: ILOVEBBCNNX

… …

So, if you get message from twitter then you will easily know which twitter account the text is from. It would be much better if you set up “multiple inboxes” and filters feature in your Gmail.

* Tip: Do not apply too many in a short time becasue Twitter may notice some weired action in one same IP address and your new twitter account my be suspended. Do not worry about your twitter account, you will not lose the control after successful signuping, the only thing you can do: just wait few days and get into your suspended twitter account(i.e. BBCNN1), change a new email and twitter name (any name i.e Fxbbcnn1, any email address even a  nonexistent email address), then quit this twitter account which you are going to abandon, signup the name again (BBCNN1).

Five-Year Trend Ends in Health Care Venture Capital

VC watching

VC watching

After five years of annual increases in the amount of venture capital funding flowing to health care companies, 2008 marked a sharp departure from that trend.
For the year ended December 31, 2008, the health care venture capital market experienced a 28% drop in funding and an 18% drop in deal volume, compared with the year-end totals for 2007. In 2008, health care companies publicly announced 396 venture capital investments totaling $7.0 billion.
Medical devices led the health care sectors during 2008, raising 32% of the funding and announcing 30% of the deals, including the largest deal of the year,a $250 million investment by GTCR in Devicor Medical Products, which was started up specifically to acquire medical device companies. The bio sectors followed, with biotechnology companies capturing 22% of both deals and dollars, and biopharmaceutical companies securing 19% of the capital in 17% of the deals. The second largest-deal of the year, a $100 million Series E led by Deerfield Management, was announced by a biotech, Pacific Biosciences, while the third-largest, a $93 million Series B led by Nomura Phase4 Ventures, was announced by a biopharma, OncoMed Pharmaceuticals.
“Venture capital investors continue to focus on identifying quality investments in the health care sectors, including companies that are intent on improving the efficiency, effectiveness or safety of health care processes or products,” commented Gretchen S. Swanson, Editor of Healthcare Corporate Finance News.
“Conserving cash and staying lean may be paramount for entrepreneurs right now, but venture capitalists are generally expected to continue investing equity in both new and existing portfolio companies.”

Stephen M. Monroe, Partner and Managing Editor of Irving Levin Associates, Inc., stated, “The recession in the overall economy is reflected somewhat in a slowdown in the health care venture capital market, but the health care markets, including M&A, have not been hit as hard as some other industry sectors.
Private, equity-backed companies with solid management and sound strategies are faring better right now than most companies that rely on credit or the public markets for operating capital.”

Healthcare Corporate Finance News reports weekly on financial events in the fast-paced venture capital, private and public equity, and merger and acquisition markets for health care companies, and provides subscribers with access to a searchable online database of health care venture capital deals.
This monthly newsletter and weekly email update is published by Irving Levin Associates, Inc., a leading financial publisher and source of market intelligence since 1948. For more information, please call 1-800-248-1668.

*To receive this press release via email, send a message to pressreleases@levinassociates.com.
Healthcare Corporate Finance News
Stephen M. Monroe, Partner
Gretchen S. Swanson, Editor
Phone: 800-248-1668
Fax: 203-846-8300
Copyright Business Wire 2009

Facebook Gets Friendfeed, worse for Google or Twitter?

Facebook+Friendfeed

Facebook+Friendfeed

Few days ago, Facebook successfully acquired FriendFeed. This is another big event after the merger of Microsoft-Yahoo.

FF with its team will become new member of FB, Currently, the acquisition amount is undisclosed but FriendFeed looks happy with the acquisition and the joy was expressed in a recent post on their blog.

I would like to describe FF a strong competitor to Twitter, as one of successful microblogging service providers. Unthoughtful, Facebook win this round after their failure of bidding Twitter, I expect the combination will bring a bit pressure to Twitter.

Google, I suppose they should worry more even though the search giant is having the obvious ambition in exploring their new social tool after trying to buy Twitter.

Anyway, whoever wins in the business market, we final users will benefit from these simple and elegant service to share information, that’s we desire.

Bullish China stock will be back soon

China stock

China stock

China investors experienced pains again and suddenly they were pulled back into the reality after losing 10-20% money. I see this decline in the past few days as a normal correction after five months of steady gains, I believe the stock market will continue to rally in the second half as most government officers and analysts start to believe ” the global and Chinese economies recover and as corporate profits continue to improve”. Based on their belief and massive crazy but blind investors, I guess the market may soar again even though I m quite not sure if the coming future is that bright.

How social media can make history

While news from Iran streams to the world, Clay Shirky shows how Facebook, Twitter and TXTs help citizens in repressive regimes to report on real news, bypassing censors (however briefly). The end of top-down control of news is changing the nature of politics. We all know we learned from a series of things happened around us… … Let enjoy the new era which modern social media bring to us

China’s lending spree could create bad loan

Bad Loan

Bad Loan

China banking authority realize to see $1.3 trillion of bank loans channelled into public works rather than stocks and property. But for lenders, such worthy projects can be a recipe for bad debts. China’s big banks are unlikely to blow up – but dead-end loans could be a drag on earnings for years to come.